Ticket for one, please - The Athletic
John Laghezza answered your fantasy football lineup questions leading up to kickoff.
John Laghezza
December 3, 2023 at 12:58 PM EST
(Photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
8 New Updates
Onto the games!
Ticket for one, please
Q: Pick one: Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk or Rashee Rice? — Rick W.
Talk about a tough choice Rick. Any of these WRs make a tough sit. Hats off to you for what must be an amazing fantasy roster.
I’ve been the high man in the industry on Rice since early September but I’m not just chasing the breakout game he delivered last week. For the first time all season, Rice led the Chiefs in route participation from 2-WR sets and we saw what happened. KC’s in desperate need of a playmaker to produce on the business end of throws from the best QB in the universe — and I want front-row seats.
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The great quarterback debate
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Q: Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Stroud? — Josh B.
A QUESTION FOR THE AGES, JOSH! For the record, I am the hype-train conductor and chapter president of the C.J. Stroud fan club. That said, I hate going against my favorite generational talent but the answer this weekend is Trevor Lawrence. The matchups could not be more disparate — the Broncos recently awoke from their defensive slumber with a terrible resolve as the Bengals seriously tailspin into oblivion.
I actually tweeted about the Bengals recent woes if you’d like to see more details but I must warn you if you’re a fan; bring a doggie bag.
Say it with me, we're sitting De'Von Achane
Q: Half PPR. Bijan Robinson, Zack Moss, Jaylen Warren or De’Von Achane. Need three. Thanks! — Ben Z.
Unless you’re already way behind on the back of a Thursday night massacre, I’m sitting Achane for sure. The Dolphins have the highest spread on the board and could run away with this game early. If they start lapping the Commanders don’t expect to see a lot of Achane coming off an injury. He’s going to need uber-efficiency to move the needle for you with Jeff Wilson in the mix as well.
When picking a WR from waivers
Q: Due to bye weeks, I’m forced to choose a wide receiver from waivers. I’m looking at Jonathan Mingo, Tyler Boyd, Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, Tutu Atwell, etc. Which would you pick? — Cyrus K.
(Incoming shameless self-promotion) Check out my “Next Weeks Waiver Wire” column Cyrus, we comb the darkest depths of the statistical leaderboard for hidden gems.
Even with Hollywood Brown trending toward playing for Arizona, Michael Wilson is not, so you have to add Dortch for the volume alone — he’s leading the team with a 27.3 percent target/route and 6.3 YAC/reception over the last three weeks.
Flex Javonte Williams?
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Q: You’ve been great and hoping you will help again. Need two of three of these upside specials ... But I’m looking for best floor. Half PPR. Nico Collins, Josh Downs or Adam Thielen. Plus for Flex, the leftover or Javonte Williams. Thank you! — David C.
Aw shucks, David. Thanks, I’m especially proud of the waiver wire column and the work that went into it. If you’re looking for the highest floors, I’d target high-probability conversions and roll with Downs plus Thielen over Collins. Each project for double-digit targets and a chance to get into the end zone. However, if we’re adding Williams into the calculus I’d slot him over Thielen. We’ve seen the Panthers’ floor as an offense and it’s in the basement’s basement.
GO FURTHER
Next week’s waiver wire: DeVante Parker, Juwan Johnson, more players to add now — before the Week 14 rush
Ekeler is disappointing, but not enough to drop lower than RB2
Q: Austin Ekeler has been disappointing. Who are a few folks you would sit him for and how far down would you say his floor is? Half PPR. Play De’Von Achane instead? Too far? Where's your line? — Beth H.
Ekeler has absolutely disappointed fantasy gamers lately with what I think are the lasting effects of the high ankle sprain he suffered. That said, you can’t really project him any lower than RB2 because the volume, pass-catching snaps and goal-line work are still intact. Injuries decimated the Chargers’ skill positions yet again so the offense will run through Ekeler by hook or by crook.
As far as some relative perspective on the position, check out my rankings at the top of the feed. I wouldn’t veer too far from projections, Ekeler could score twice today and we wouldn’t blink twice.
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Snow game in Green Bay?!
Q: Will weather impact Jordan Love's performance on Sunday? — Stanleigh W.
According to my favorite NFL meteorologist Kevin Roth, “It's going to snow in GB on Sunday, with models showing a healthy burst of snow in the hours leading up to the game. By game time, though, the precipitation should be cleared out, no more falling snow, with temps around freezing and light winds. I don't expect any real impact.
So it’s not the weather I’m worried about, Stanleigh. It’s the Kansas City defense. This isn’t our Uncle Charlie’s high-flying Chiefs anymore; they actually run the ball and play stout defense. On the season KC has held opposing QBs under a 62 percent completion rate with an 84.6 passer rating and only 176 yards/game. I think the Packer’s cheese stagecoach turns into a pumpkin.
Somebody understood the assignment
Q: Eight-team PPR. Dominated the wire early season. In the race for playoffs, a win will clinch a spot. Sitting De’Von Achane due to recent uncertainty around usage coming back from injury (Got burned playing him two weeks ago). Need to sit one: Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams or Zach Moss? — John F.
First things first, John. Let’s all take a second to recognize the excellent job you did in understanding the assignment. When you never stop adding RB talent to your fantasy roster, you can end up in enviable spots like this.
Not to blindly lean on the projections but White’s the only player I have outside the RB1 range. I get Williams facing the toughest defense, but I’d still counter his sheer workload too massive to fade.
For anyone who faced DK Metcalf this week ...
Q: Half PPR. Need one of D’Andre Swift, Breece Hall or Ja’Marr Chase. Starting in a 35-point hole after DK Metcalf’s performance Thursday night. — Matt B.
Tough spot Matt, injuries really hurt so you’ll need Touchdowns. I’m holding my nose starting any of these guys today but I’d roll with Chase. The Jake Browning experience has been pretty rough so far but the Bengals should be playing from behind and throwing non-stop against a Jaguar pass defense that’s seriously struggled lately, allowing a 130.8 passer rating, over 12 yards/completion and a nearly 73 percent completion rate over the last three weeks.
What to do with De'Von Achane
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Q: How strong will De’Von Achane be? Should I start him over Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson or Devin Singletary? — Johnny R.
Achane’s such an interesting fantasy asset because his ceiling is literally as high as anyone on a per-touch basis. That said, he doesn’t possess the one thing we need to start him with confidence — projectable volume. I mentioned Achane by name at the onset as a “break glass in case of emergency” player for this reason. Unless I’m trailing in my matchup and in catch-up mode I wouldn’t start him over those other RBs. The Dolphins are among the largest favorites on today’s board and if they get ahead early, I’m struggling to envision Mike McDaniel risking Achane coming off an injury.
Sell high on the Packers this weekend
Q: Full PPR, I need two: Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed and Josh Downs. Thank you! — Johnny R.
I’m starting Rice and Downs — they’ve got the higher Vegas team totals and project significantly higher than Reed. For the first time last week, Rice led all Chief WRs in route participation from two-wide sets so I’m treating him as a borderline WR1 until we see a change. I covered Downs earlier in these threads if you want to scroll down. Long story short, the Titans funnel their opposition into pass-heavy approaches and Downs stands to have a huge day in PPR from a volume standpoint.
Green Bay’s certainly improved the last few weeks, though admittedly facing weaker competition which will not be the case against this Kansas City defense. Sell high on the Packers this weekend.
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Avoid the Jets wherever possible. Sincerely, a sad Jets fan
Q: Half PPR: Breece Hall or Javonte Williams? — Nick Z.
As a Jets fans with high hopes entering the year, this one hurts but you have to avoid NYJ whenever you can. The QB/O-line situation’s so bad it borders on untenable, creating too easy a pathway to floor games.
Williams is inside the top 10 of RB utilization over the last three weeks and he’s catching passes. You’re getting everything but the TDs and that could easily begin regressing today — he’s one of only two RBs in the NFL with 80+ attempts and 0 rushing TD.
Najee if you're reading this, I'm sorry
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Q: In a non-PPR league, which Steelers RB would you favor this Sunday and going forward? — Kyle H.
I’m not sure if Najee Harris reads my work anymore after slotting him so low in the preseason but if he’s out there, I owe him an apology. I was one of the many analysts who stepped on the rake and ticketed Najee for the fantasy graveyard. He’s looked quick with the ball in his hands, he’s breaking tackles and securing the high-value touches at the goal line. Given there are no points awarded for receptions, you have to roll with Najee Harris.
A good problem to have
Q: Need three WRs for this weekend: Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen or DeAndre Hopkins. Thank you. — John A.
Thanks for reading, John. You’re the current clubhouse leader for chin-scratcher of the day, this is a really tough one. With all the injuries to the Buccaneers’ D plus their vulnerability against slot WRs, Adam Thielen’s my only must-start in the group. After that, I’ve got the other four WRs within six spots and one projected point. I’d steer into the better QB play where possible and start Hopkins and Johnson with Thielen.
Definitely Downs
Q: PPR Flex: DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin or Josh Downs? — Shawn G.
Definitely Downs — he’s got the best mix of game script, talent and opportunity. Titans QB Will Levis creates too epic a downside for Hopkins and Eric Bieniemy spreads out the Commanders’ pass attack too thin for my liking. I believe the Titans’ fierce front seven will funnel the Colts into a pass-heavy attack with Downs as a focal point from the slot.
Sit Chris Olave?
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Q: Pick 2: Chris Olave (if healthy), DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. Full PPR. Thanks John! — Noah G.
Thank you, Noah! I’ve got both Smith and Waddle projected as top-seven options at the position so I’d roll with the draft capital and projections. Last week was certainly encouraging for the Saints’ WR but I have so little confidence in Derek Carr that even if Olave wasn’t battling concussion protocol, I’d stick with the projections and sit him this week.
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There's potential in Philly
Q: Who would you start at WR this week in a non-PPR league: Tank Dell or DeVonta Smith? Thanks! — John C.
The C.J. Stroud/Tank Dell battery’s been a revelation this season, no doubt. That said, Tank’s battling a calf injury that cost him practice time this week and also reaggravates easily. This Denver defense has come a very long way from the historically bad unit that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins early on. The Eagles carry the higher implied team total and despite a considerably tough matchup vs. SF, the Niners can be had over the middle via the slot. Devonta Smith lives up to his second-round draft cost whenever Dallas Goedert’s out and he’s currently listed as doubtful.
I’d lean into the potential shootout in Philadelphia.
Flex Devin Singletary or Josh Downs?
(Photo: Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images)
Q: Half-PPR Flex: Devin Singletary or Josh Downs? — Brandon K.
Singletary’s usage has been really encouraging from a volume standpoint but since Dameon Pierce’s return they appear to be splitting backfield carries. Singletary’s still the Texan RB to start because he commands the goal-line touches but I’d prefer Josh Downs against the Titans. I doubt the Colts will have the same type of success they had vs. TEN earlier this year on the ground given the way the Titans defend the run. I expect the Colts to pivot to a nearly pure passing schematic early on, with Josh Downs working the middle of the field from the slot at the center of the attack.
Top 40 WR projections for Week 13
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